Komoditas Indonesia

Kelimpahan dan keanekaragaman komoditas Indonesia merupakan aset vital bagi perekonomian negara (dan pendapatan pemerintah) karena menyumbang sekitar 60 persen dari total ekspor. Tetapi sebagai salah satu negara utama pemroduksi dan pengekspor komoditas, Indonesia lebih rentan terhadap efek dari volatilitas harga di pasar komoditas global. Keadaan tersebut memerlukan kebijakan yang efektif pada saat harga komoditas turun maupun naik.

Coal Mining Update Indonesia: Production Down, Consumption Up

10 Oktober 2016 | 

• Coal Consumption
• Coal Industry
• Coal Price
• Coal Export
• Coal Production
• Coal Mining
• Coal

Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

While many analysts have spoken or written about the demise of coal as a key source for energy generation, rebounding coal prices in 2016 have taken markets by surprise. Thermal coal (both physical and futures) prices soared between 50 and 80 percent since the start of the year. This rally might continue into the first quarter of 2017.

What Causes the Coal Price Rally?

To answer this question we have to look at the supply and demand mechanism. Supplies in key coal producing countries have declined. Indonesia is one of these key countries. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016, Indonesia's coal production fell 14.4 percent (y/y) to 241.1 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2015 from 281.7 Mtoe in the preceding year. This was the first time that BP saw Indonesia's coal output declining on a year-on-year basis. This decline is attributed to a fall in global coal demand in preceding years, particularly in China, that caused financial troubles for local miners that therefore reduced - or completely shut down - their operations in 2015 and 2016.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal consumption rose 15 percent (y/y) to 80.3 Mtoe in 2015, from 69.8 Mtoe in the preceding year (Indonesia is now the world's 8th largest coal consumer). Rising consumption is fueled by the government's ambitious program to expand the nation's power capacity to 35,000 MW by 2019. The majority of new power plants are coal-fired, a logical option given that Indonesia has abundant coal supplies and prices are still low. Coal already is the biggest source for power generation. According to BP coal contributes 41.4 percent to Indonesia's total energy consumption, followed by oil (37.6 percent of the total).

Not only in Indonesia but also in Europe and Asia coal demand is growing. The recent price rally is specifically attributed to rising demand from China, the world's largest energy consumer. Although China's coal demand had fallen in recent years, there has been a surge of coal imports into China in recent months as local authorities capped domestic coal mining output (to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement) and therefore turned to imports again.

Besides authorities' encouragement to curtail coal production (a strategy to boost global coal prices and safeguard future supplies), coal production in Indonesia and Australia have also declined this year due to a prolonged wet season in the key coal producing regions.

Indonesian Government's Benchmark Thermal Coal Price (HBA): 

Month	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
January	109.29	87.55	81.90	63.84	53.20
February	111.58	88.35	80.44	62.92	50.92
March	112.87	90.09	77.01	67.76	51.62
April	105.61	88.56	74.81	64.48	52.32
May	102.12	85.33	73.60	61.08	51.20
June	96.65	84.87	73.64	59.59	51.87
July	87.56	81.69	72.45	59.16	53.00
August	84.65	76.70	70.29	59.14	58.37
September	86.21	76.89	69.69	58.21	63.93
October	86.04	76.61	67.26	57.39
November	81.44	78.13	65.70	54.43
December	81.75	80.31	69.23	53.51

^{in USD/ton
Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources}


Indonesian Production, Export, Consumption & Price of Coal:

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Production(in million tons)	217	240	254	275	353	412	474	458	461
Export(in million tons)	163	191	198	210	287	345	402	382	366
Domestic (in million tons)	61	49	56	65	66	67	72	76	87
Price (HBA)(in USD/ton)	n.a	n.a	70.7	91.7	118.4	95.5	82.9	72.6	60.1

^{Sources: Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) & Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources}

Last Update: 11 Okt 2016

Mining Index Indonesia Stock Exchange

Company	P: 11 Okt 2016	P: 10 Okt 2016	Gain/Loss	P/E ttm	Yield %	Gain/Loss YTD
Adaro EnergyADRO	1,400	1,385	1.08%	N/A	0.00%	183.40%
Atlas ResourcesARII	500	500	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	18.20%
ATPK ResourcesATPK	194	194	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Borneo Lumbung Energi & MetalBORN	50	50	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Berau Coal EnergyBRAU	82	82	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Baramulti SuksessaranaBSSR	1,405	1,405	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	26.58%
Bumi ResourcesBUMI	76	81	-6.17%	N/A	0.00%	52.00%
Bayan ResourcesBYAN	7,000	7,000	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-11.11%
Darma HenwaDEWA	50	50	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Delta Dunia MakmurDOID	348	332	4.82%	N/A	0.00%	582.35%
Golden Energy MinesGEMS	1,540	1,540	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	10.00%
Garda Tujuh BuanaGTBO	260	260	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Harum EnergyHRUM	1,500	1,430	4.90%	N/A	0.00%	120.59%
Indo Tambangraya MegahITMG	13,950	13,025	7.10%	N/A	0.00%	143.67%
Resource Alam IndonesiaKKGI	1,480	1,425	3.86%	N/A	0.00%	237.90%
Mitrabara AdiperdanaMBAP	1,900	1,900	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	70.40%
Samindo ResourcesMYOH	555	555	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	11.45%
Perdana Karya PerkasaPKPK	50	50	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Tambang Batubara Bukit AsamPTBA	11,675	11,200	4.24%	N/A	0.00%	169.32%
PetroseaPTRO	630	625	0.80%	N/A	0.00%	117.24%
Golden Eagle EnergySMMT	113	113	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-27.10%
Permata Prima SaktiTKGA	1,800	1,800	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Toba Bara SejahtraTOBA	705	695	1.44%	N/A	0.00%	8.46%
Apexindo Pratama DutaAPEX	3,270	3,270	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-1.80%
Ratu Prabu EnergiARTI	55	55	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-67.84%
Benakat IntegraBIPI	50	50	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
ElnusaELSA	492	470	4.68%	N/A	0.00%	105.00%
Energi Mega PersadaENRG	50	50	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Surya Esa PerkasaESSA	1,450	1,450	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-17.14%
Medco Energi InternasionalMEDC	1,410	1,410	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	80.77%
Radiant Utama InterinscoRUIS	240	236	1.69%	N/A	0.00%	11.63%
Aneka Tambang (Antam)ANTM	830	790	5.06%	N/A	0.00%	180.41%
Cita Mineral InvestindoCITA	940	940	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	0.00%
Cakra MineralCKRA	65	66	-1.52%	N/A	0.00%	30.00%
Central Omega ResourcesDKFT	340	346	-1.73%	N/A	0.00%	-14.36%
Vale IndonesiaINCO	2,720	2,670	1.87%	N/A	0.00%	77.78%
Merdeka Copper GoldMDKA	1,940	1,940	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-4.43%
J Resources Asia PasifikPSAB	328	328	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-75.34%
SMR UtamaSMRU	179	179	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	-16.74%
TimahTINS	805	795	1.26%	N/A	0.00%	67.71%
Citatah Industri MarmerCTTH	74	74	0.00%	N/A	0.00%	39.62%
Mitra InvestindoMITI	63	70	-10.00%	N/A	0.00%	-49.19%
Combined Total	62,564	60,886	2.76%			49.65%

Green colour indicates upward movement Red colour indicates downward movement P = price; E = earnings; D = dividend; Yield = D/P "N/A" indicates P/E < 0 (negative earnings) "-" indicates E,D,P or YTD is not available.

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